I'm actually not sure about that. With several diseases, including measles, mumps, whooping cough, and chicken pox, there are two main effects of mass vaccinations. The first is to raise the average age of infection (generally, for those, it used to be mid-childhood) and the second is to eliminate as many possible vectors for infection, thereby reducing the likelihood of encountering the disease at all. The two together produce herd immunity that protects even those who aren't themselves immune.
If the mass vaccination falls below a certain threshold, which varies by disease but is at least 65% and possibly as high as 85%, then the possible vectors of infection are sufficient to ensure that many people will come in contact with one, thereby eliminating that from the equation. Then the first issue comes into play. By raising the average age of infection, what happens is the people who are most likely to get complicated cases are the same ones whose immunity is weak or non-existent. The result is that the disease actually takes a heavier toll on the population than it would have if no one were vaccinated.
Your unvaccinated kids would probably have an uncomplicated case and be back at school in a few weeks. Meanwhile, the teacher at their school who was in her first trimester could cone down with measles and miscarry, or have a brain-damaged baby, even though she had her shots as a baby. Do you ave the right to mess with the herd immunity that protects everyone, for no valid medical reason? I would say, no - and that's why vaccinations are required for schoolchildren.
Re: Just to play devil's advocate...
Date: 2007-01-02 10:54 pm (UTC)If the mass vaccination falls below a certain threshold, which varies by disease but is at least 65% and possibly as high as 85%, then the possible vectors of infection are sufficient to ensure that many people will come in contact with one, thereby eliminating that from the equation. Then the first issue comes into play. By raising the average age of infection, what happens is the people who are most likely to get complicated cases are the same ones whose immunity is weak or non-existent. The result is that the disease actually takes a heavier toll on the population than it would have if no one were vaccinated.
Your unvaccinated kids would probably have an uncomplicated case and be back at school in a few weeks. Meanwhile, the teacher at their school who was in her first trimester could cone down with measles and miscarry, or have a brain-damaged baby, even though she had her shots as a baby. Do you ave the right to mess with the herd immunity that protects everyone, for no valid medical reason? I would say, no - and that's why vaccinations are required for schoolchildren.
Re: Just to play devil's advocate...
Date: 2007-01-02 11:44 pm (UTC)